The Bidding War Heats Up: Paramount Raises to $31, Warner Bros. Board Warms Up—But Hasn't Flipped

It's been a week since I covered Warner Bros. giving Paramount a seven-day window to make their "best and final offer." Today that deadline arrived—and Paramount showed up with a higher number.

Sort of.

Remember back in January when Paramount said they weren't raising their $30/share price? Well, tonight they officially raised their price. Again.

Paramount submitted a revised offer of **$31 per share**, valuing Warner Bros. Discovery at roughly $77 billion. 1 Not the $32/share that was widely reported going in—but a meaningful raise from $30 nonetheless.

The new bid also includes a daily ticking fee of $0.25 per quarter beginning January 1, 2027—meaning the longer the deal takes to close, the more Paramount pays per share. 4

For those keeping score at home: Paramount has now raised its offer three times since January, after saying they absolutely weren't going to raise it. Classic.

Warner Bros. Board Is Warming Up—But Hasn't Flipped

Here's the key detail: the WBD board said Paramount's $31/share offer "could reasonably be expected" to lead to a "company superior proposal"—but has not yet formally deemed it superior to Netflix's deal. 2

Warner Bros. extended the negotiating window with Paramount to continue talks. 1 Netflix now has **four days to counter** if WBD formally deems the offer superior. 5

Translation: the board is interested enough to keep talking, but hasn't pulled the trigger on switching sides yet. Netflix still has time to respond.

The Political Dimension: Trump, Susan Rice, and the DOJ

While all this was happening, the deal picked up some serious political baggage.

February 22: Trump posted on Truth Social demanding Netflix fire board member Susan Rice, saying: "Netflix should fire racist, Trump Deranged Susan Rice, IMMEDIATELY, or pay the consequences." Sarandos called it "a distraction" and declined to fire her.

Around the same time, the DOJ formally opened a full antitrust investigation into Netflix's Warner Bros. acquisition, probing whether the deal would "substantially lessen competition or tend to create a monopoly" under both Section 7 of the Clayton Act and Section 2 of the Sherman Act.

The timing is worth noting. Trump demands Netflix fire a board member on Saturday. The DOJ formally opens a monopolization investigation days later. The DOJ antitrust chief gets forced out. Paramount—whose backers include Larry Ellison, a known Trump ally—gets its HSR antitrust waiting period cleared without issue.

You don't have to be a conspiracy theorist to notice the pattern. It's the same playbook we've seen with other mergers and tech companies in this administration: establish leverage, then see who bends. Whether Netflix caves or not will tell us a lot about how this deal ultimately plays out.

Sarandos, for his part, called it "a business deal, not a political deal." We'll see how long that framing holds.

Hollywood Weighs In

James Cameron wrote a letter opposing Netflix's acquisition. Mark Ruffalo publicly asked Cameron whether he's equally concerned about Paramount's "monopolization"—pointing out the irony of opposing one consolidation while potentially supporting another.

Sarandos accused Cameron of being "part of Paramount's disinformation campaign."

Meanwhile, MoffettNathanson analysts said an offer around **$34/share** would be needed to truly end the bidding war and "avoid further debate over Discovery Global's value." 3 At $31/share, Paramount is still $3 short of that threshold.

Where Things Stand

Netflix's position:

$27.75/share all-cash ($82.7 billion total) for studios and streaming assets only
Has four days to counter if WBD formally deems Paramount's offer superior
Sarandos calling Trump's Susan Rice demand "a distraction"
DOJ formally investigating for monopolization
Shareholder vote still set for March 20

Paramount's position:

Raised to $31/share + $0.25/quarter ticking fee beginning January 1, 2027
Offered to pay Netflix's $2.8 billion breakup fee
Larry Ellison's personal guarantee at $43.3 billion
HSR antitrust waiting period cleared
Still $3/share below what analysts say would end the bidding war

Warner Bros.' position:

Board says Paramount's offer "could reasonably be expected" to lead to a superior proposal
Extended negotiating window with Paramount
Still hasn't formally flipped from Netflix
Shareholder vote March 20

What This Actually Means

The board warming up to Paramount's offer without formally flipping is a classic negotiating move—they're signaling to Netflix: "match this or we might switch." Netflix has four days to respond.

The real question is whether Netflix counters or holds firm. They have "ample room" to raise their offer according to Reuters, but doing so would increase an already eye-watering $82.7 billion price tag while the DOJ is actively investigating whether they're a monopoly.

And that's the bind Netflix is in: raise the offer and look desperate, or hold firm and risk losing the deal to Paramount. Either way, the March 20 shareholder vote is the real deadline—and it's less than four weeks away.

Got thoughts on this mess? Find me on Mastodon at @ppb1701@ppb.social